FHB(First Hawaiian Bank)の経済アドバイザーで、ハワイ大学教授のDr. Jack Suyderhoud氏による来年のハワイ経済の見通しが発表されていますのでご紹介します。

To date, 2015 has been a very good year. Based on the 2015 year-to-date figures that are available, tourism numbers and spending have been stronger than I had forecast last year. However, statewide construction completed, total jobs and personal income have not lived up to expectations, and inflation has been less than I predicted. As to the rest of 2015 and 2016, a familiar story: state growth will continue, led by tourism and construction. (See Chart 1.) Next year will be the seventh consecutive year of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Hawaii.


■ tourism: I am forecasting visitor arrivals to grow by 4.0% for all of 2015 and 2% for 2016. The reduction in growth next year is a reflection of capacity constraints described below. In addition, high room rates plus the continued strong dollar relative to the yen, and the Canadian and Aussie dollars, all suggest that tourism will continue to contribute to growth but at an attenuated pace. Visitor expenditures will remain positive, but only modestly above the rate of inflation.


■ Construction: This sector has been accelerating in 2015. Construction permit data plus continued pent-up demand for housing will show up in double-digit percentage growth in completed activity. Studies by the Hawaii Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism show that there is a demand for 65,000 housing units statewide from 2015-2025. In addition, a healthier fiscal position for state and county governments means that deferred maintenance and infrastructure renewal spending will continue to contribute to construction’s growth. All of this should help bring back some of the 6,000 construction jobs that we have yet to recover since the Great Recession.

着工数は今年伸びた。Hawaii Department of Business Economic Development and Tourismの調べでは州全体で65000件の住宅ニーズが今後10年であり、既存建物の修繕工事もこれから増えてくるだろうとのこと。これで前回の不況で失った60000の建築関係の仕事が少しはもどってくるだろう。

■ Labor Market: The return of more construction jobs will contribute to improvements in the overall Hawaii labor market. I expect total job growth to pick up for the rest of this year and into 2016 and that the state’s unemployment rate will continue to improve, reaching 3.2% next year.

■ Personal income: As the labor market improves, inflation-adjusted personal income will continue to expand at a rate of about 2.3-2.5%.

■ inflation: Lastly, concern about resurgent inflation is overstated. Hawaii inflation is most affected by national price patterns for such things as energy and foods, and there seems little fear of national inflation through 2016. However, I do expect that higher housing and rental prices, along with higher wages in tighter labor markets, will be reflected in the Hawaii price data. I am
thus expecting an increase in inflation to 2.0% in 2016.